Gloom And Doomer

Inside Falluja, an Iraqi boy inspected rubble on Tuesday after an overnight American airstrike. (From today's NY Times)

Falluja

Brace yourself, people of Falluja, the yanks are coming to save you.

"If we're told to go, it'll be decisive," Lt. Gen. John F. Sattler, the commander of nearly 40,000 marines and soldiers in western and south-central Iraq, said in an interview. "The goal will be to limit the damage, limit the casualties and do it as rapidly and decisively as possible. We're not here to destroy the town. We're here to give it back."

The planned full scale assault on Falluja would have already taken place if not for the US elections. The Pentagon has determined that in order for planned January elections to have even the slightest credibility the US needs to rapidly retake several Iraqi cities so the inhabitants have at least the appearance of a chance to take part in elections.

Bringing the blessings of democracy to Fallujans is going to be bloody, extremely bloody, but hey sometimes you need to destroy a village in order to save it, right?

The comments of the marine commander above make it very clear that he will make every effort to limit both marine and civilian casualties . Who could blame him for focusing much more on protecting his own? Limiting civilian casualties is of course desirable but when entering a city of 300,000 (many fled in April but returned after an earlier assault was aborted) to remove an insurgency that is not in uniform, and is living and hiding among the populace, a blood bath is a certainty. The only way to prevent our guys from being picked off the way they have been over and over again in the last year is to lay down unambiguous rules of engagement. It is predictable that these rules will be to assume anyone you see is a hostile, in military parlance it will be a "free fire zone". Noncombatants will be wise to remain hunkered down indoors. Should they be unfortunate enough to have an upstairs neighbor fire a shot then they will find their building reduced to rubble with them in it. This is urban warfare.

Fear of political fallout when the full scale of the carnage comes out is the reason that we have not already implemented the plans. Why go forward in the first place? So Bush can fulfill his promise of holding elections in January regardless of the practicality of this timetable and he can declare victory in February and begin to bring troops home before we have a full scale mutiny in our military.

If Bush wins on Tuesday this assault will go forward. Many innocent people will be slaughtered. Bush may not actually wait until the day after the election to mount the full scale assaults. His advisors might well think that a better idea is to start the invasion on Sunday in order to try to unite the country behind its commander in chief while our men and women in uniform are in harms way. The bad news about civilian casualties can easily be withheld through election day.

Bush will be shown in profile, deep in thought and worry, the weight of the world on his shoulders as a dim light burns behind him and he stairs from a window of the White House praying for the safety of our troops, a look of firm resolve on his face. What an image! Four more years! Democratic attack ads will appear unseemly during such circumstances.

Oh, by the way, we have to do the same thing in Ramadi.